{ "artifact": "Vaelon independent re-screening of public conjunction data", "source": "CelesTrak SOCRATES Plus \u2014 Top 25 by Minimum Range", "source_current_as_of": "2026 Jul 24 18:19:29 UTC", "computation_interval": "Start = 2026 Jul 24 18:00:00 UTC, Stop = 2026 Jul 31 18:00:00 UTC", "method": "For each published conjunction, both objects' orbital elements were fetched from CelesTrak and independently re-propagated with the reference SGP4 library; the time and distance of closest approach were recomputed from scratch (60 s coarse + 20 ms fine scan around SOCRATES's TCA) and compared to the published minimum range. Each independently-computed closest approach was gated by the Vaelon flight engine (5 km keep-out, 3 km 3-sigma uncertainty band) and folded into a tamper-evident HMAC-SHA256 audit chain.", "events_total": 25, "events_screened": 25, "vaelon_blocked": 19, "signed_audit_head": "bcf6d1334a465847abcc24bfedc4aabab990750db2bd65aff8fbbc3c0fdd4593", "signed_decision_count": 25, "audit_key_id": "vaelon-conjunction-screen-2026", "events": [ { "p_norad": 63697, "p_name": "STARLINK-33894 [+]", "days_since_epoch": "7.269", "tca": "2026-07-30 23:12:39.074", "socrates_min_range_km": 0.012, "socrates_rel_speed_km_s": 14.538, "s_norad": 47937, "s_name": "OBJECT F [-]", "max_probability": "3.764E-01", "status": "screened", "vaelon_dca_km": 56.4146, "vaelon_tca_utc": "2026-07-30 23:12:57.294", "vaelon_closing_rate_km_s": -0.02818, "vaelon_rel_speed_km_s": 14.5382, "delta_vs_socrates_km": 56.4026, "p_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 13:05", "s_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 15:27", "horizon_days": 6.32, "reproduced_sub_km": false, "vaelon_verdict": "ALLOW", "signed_head_prefix": "3ab3c318" }, { "p_norad": 65787, "p_name": "KUIPER-00174 [+]", "days_since_epoch": "0.951", "tca": "2026-07-25 04:41:43.132", "socrates_min_range_km": 0.015, "socrates_rel_speed_km_s": 6.456, "s_norad": 31117, "s_name": "EGYPTSAT 1 [-]", "max_probability": "1.826E-02", "status": "screened", "vaelon_dca_km": 0.8183, "vaelon_tca_utc": "2026-07-25 04:41:43.172", "vaelon_closing_rate_km_s": -0.40701, "vaelon_rel_speed_km_s": 6.4561, "delta_vs_socrates_km": 0.8033, "p_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 12:21", "s_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 10:44", "horizon_days": 0.68, "reproduced_sub_km": true, "vaelon_verdict": "BLOCK", "signed_head_prefix": "5783091b" }, { "p_norad": 43569, "p_name": "IRIDIUM 160 [+]", "days_since_epoch": "6.952", "tca": "2026-07-30 22:04:45.323", "socrates_min_range_km": 0.02, "socrates_rel_speed_km_s": 14.305, "s_norad": 16011, "s_name": "COSMOS 1680 [?]", "max_probability": "1.082E-02", "status": "screened", "vaelon_dca_km": 2.7124, "vaelon_tca_utc": "2026-07-30 22:04:44.663", "vaelon_closing_rate_km_s": -0.66648, "vaelon_rel_speed_km_s": 14.3052, "delta_vs_socrates_km": 2.6924, "p_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 12:37", "s_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 10:38", "horizon_days": 6.39, "reproduced_sub_km": false, "vaelon_verdict": "BLOCK", "signed_head_prefix": "5553751f" }, { "p_norad": 52618, "p_name": "STARLINK-3983 [+]", "days_since_epoch": "3.206", "tca": "2026-07-27 12:56:47.796", "socrates_min_range_km": 0.025, "socrates_rel_speed_km_s": 8.499, "s_norad": 60013, "s_name": "OBJECT B [+]", "max_probability": "1.430E-01", "status": "screened", "vaelon_dca_km": 130.7053, "vaelon_tca_utc": "2026-07-27 12:56:59.876", "vaelon_closing_rate_km_s": -0.00065, "vaelon_rel_speed_km_s": 8.4999, "delta_vs_socrates_km": 130.6803, "p_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 14:00", "s_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 21:16", "horizon_days": 2.65, "reproduced_sub_km": false, "vaelon_verdict": "ALLOW", "signed_head_prefix": "f7675e79" }, { "p_norad": 53943, "p_name": "YAOGAN-36 01A [+]", "days_since_epoch": "4.199", "tca": "2026-07-28 03:45:38.915", "socrates_min_range_km": 0.029, "socrates_rel_speed_km_s": 13.608, "s_norad": 69549, "s_name": "STARLINK-37871 [+]", "max_probability": "8.132E-02", "status": "screened", "vaelon_dca_km": 1686.6448, "vaelon_tca_utc": "2026-07-28 03:46:40.915", "vaelon_closing_rate_km_s": -10.41073, "vaelon_rel_speed_km_s": 13.58, "delta_vs_socrates_km": 1686.6158, "p_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 14:42", "s_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 14:00", "horizon_days": 3.54, "reproduced_sub_km": false, "vaelon_verdict": "BLOCK", "signed_head_prefix": "c7ec2f4c" }, { "p_norad": 57890, "p_name": "YAOGAN-39 02C [+]", "days_since_epoch": "23.428", "tca": "2026-07-31 15:08:00.987", "socrates_min_range_km": 0.029, "socrates_rel_speed_km_s": 11.611, "s_norad": 67399, "s_name": "TOMORROW-S11 [+]", "max_probability": "3.554E-03", "status": "screened", "vaelon_dca_km": 8.9119, "vaelon_tca_utc": "2026-07-31 15:08:00.087", "vaelon_closing_rate_km_s": 0.10351, "vaelon_rel_speed_km_s": 11.6107, "delta_vs_socrates_km": 8.8829, "p_epoch_utc": "2026-07-08 04:51", "s_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 11:50", "horizon_days": 7.14, "reproduced_sub_km": false, "vaelon_verdict": "ALLOW", "signed_head_prefix": "c55501de" }, { "p_norad": 43672, "p_name": "GOSAT 2 (IBUKI 1) [+]", "days_since_epoch": "6.556", "tca": "2026-07-30 19:03:09.257", "socrates_min_range_km": 0.031, "socrates_rel_speed_km_s": 13.58, "s_norad": 14552, "s_name": "SL-14 R/B [-]", "max_probability": "5.801E-03", "status": "screened", "vaelon_dca_km": 4.7237, "vaelon_tca_utc": "2026-07-30 19:03:09.897", "vaelon_closing_rate_km_s": 0.37921, "vaelon_rel_speed_km_s": 13.581, "delta_vs_socrates_km": 4.6927, "p_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 13:48", "s_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 10:45", "horizon_days": 6.22, "reproduced_sub_km": false, "vaelon_verdict": "BLOCK", "signed_head_prefix": "175e5228" }, { "p_norad": 39455, "p_name": "SHIYAN-5 (SY-5) [+]", "days_since_epoch": "1.549", "tca": "2026-07-25 20:11:26.332", "socrates_min_range_km": 0.033, "socrates_rel_speed_km_s": 14.49, "s_norad": 31566, "s_name": "FENGYUN 1C DEB [-]", "max_probability": "1.701E-03", "status": "screened", "vaelon_dca_km": 0.1901, "vaelon_tca_utc": "2026-07-25 20:11:26.272", "vaelon_closing_rate_km_s": -2.6105, "vaelon_rel_speed_km_s": 14.4896, "delta_vs_socrates_km": 0.1571, "p_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 21:59", "s_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 04:02", "horizon_days": 0.93, "reproduced_sub_km": true, "vaelon_verdict": "BLOCK", "signed_head_prefix": "34377f4b" }, { "p_norad": 61903, "p_name": "OBJECT K [+]", "days_since_epoch": "6.810", "tca": "2026-07-31 02:46:22.992", "socrates_min_range_km": 0.042, "socrates_rel_speed_km_s": 0.211, "s_norad": 62727, "s_name": "OBJECT C [+]", "max_probability": "2.515E-03", "status": "screened", "vaelon_dca_km": 12.8288, "vaelon_tca_utc": "2026-07-31 02:46:32.692", "vaelon_closing_rate_km_s": -2e-05, "vaelon_rel_speed_km_s": 0.2109, "delta_vs_socrates_km": 12.7868, "p_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 15:09", "s_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 21:06", "horizon_days": 6.24, "reproduced_sub_km": false, "vaelon_verdict": "ALLOW", "signed_head_prefix": "863a00b2" }, { "p_norad": 64084, "p_name": "STARLINK-34157 [+]", "days_since_epoch": "7.276", "tca": "2026-07-31 11:55:18.644", "socrates_min_range_km": 0.043, "socrates_rel_speed_km_s": 10.44, "s_norad": 35443, "s_name": "COSMOS 2251 DEB [-]", "max_probability": "5.268E-02", "status": "screened", "vaelon_dca_km": 0.0785, "vaelon_tca_utc": "2026-07-31 11:55:18.644", "vaelon_closing_rate_km_s": -4.71966, "vaelon_rel_speed_km_s": 10.4399, "delta_vs_socrates_km": 0.0355, "p_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 05:17", "s_epoch_utc": "2026-07-22 11:30", "horizon_days": 7.28, "reproduced_sub_km": true, "vaelon_verdict": "BLOCK", "signed_head_prefix": "2f9080af" }, { "p_norad": 41026, "p_name": "YAOGAN-28 [+]", "days_since_epoch": "0.858", "tca": "2026-07-25 04:33:14.179", "socrates_min_range_km": 0.047, "socrates_rel_speed_km_s": 7.352, "s_norad": 54011, "s_name": "STARLINK-5124 [+]", "max_probability": "4.939E-02", "status": "screened", "vaelon_dca_km": 0.5596, "vaelon_tca_utc": "2026-07-25 04:33:14.359", "vaelon_closing_rate_km_s": 0.01863, "vaelon_rel_speed_km_s": 7.352, "delta_vs_socrates_km": 0.5126, "p_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 15:49", "s_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 11:05", "horizon_days": 0.53, "reproduced_sub_km": true, "vaelon_verdict": "BLOCK", "signed_head_prefix": "8b49db45" }, { "p_norad": 39452, "p_name": "SWARM A [+]", "days_since_epoch": "5.392", "tca": "2026-07-29 15:23:33.999", "socrates_min_range_km": 0.05, "socrates_rel_speed_km_s": 13.335, "s_norad": 53320, "s_name": "YAOGAN-35 03C [+]", "max_probability": "1.013E-03", "status": "screened", "vaelon_dca_km": 67.3369, "vaelon_tca_utc": "2026-07-29 15:23:43.679", "vaelon_closing_rate_km_s": 0.00515, "vaelon_rel_speed_km_s": 13.335, "delta_vs_socrates_km": 67.2869, "p_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 13:43", "s_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 14:45", "horizon_days": 5.03, "reproduced_sub_km": false, "vaelon_verdict": "ALLOW", "signed_head_prefix": "e859986c" }, { "p_norad": 58691, "p_name": "HULIANWANG JISHU SHIYAN 4A [+]", "days_since_epoch": "4.801", "tca": "2026-07-29 01:16:43.320", "socrates_min_range_km": 0.05, "socrates_rel_speed_km_s": 14.124, "s_norad": 7130, "s_name": "DELTA 1 DEB [-]", "max_probability": "7.288E-04", "status": "screened", "vaelon_dca_km": 3.2725, "vaelon_tca_utc": "2026-07-29 01:16:42.440", "vaelon_closing_rate_km_s": 0.26002, "vaelon_rel_speed_km_s": 14.1236, "delta_vs_socrates_km": 3.2225, "p_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 13:13", "s_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 09:07", "horizon_days": 4.5, "reproduced_sub_km": false, "vaelon_verdict": "BLOCK", "signed_head_prefix": "9a7f85f0" }, { "p_norad": 58410, "p_name": "STARLINK-30933 [+]", "days_since_epoch": "3.354", "tca": "2026-07-27 09:35:44.139", "socrates_min_range_km": 0.052, "socrates_rel_speed_km_s": 5.135, "s_norad": 66304, "s_name": "BANDWAGON-4 OBJECT M [+]", "max_probability": "4.376E-02", "status": "screened", "vaelon_dca_km": 6.668, "vaelon_tca_utc": "2026-07-27 09:35:43.019", "vaelon_closing_rate_km_s": -0.02825, "vaelon_rel_speed_km_s": 5.1355, "delta_vs_socrates_km": 6.616, "p_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 10:30", "s_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 06:02", "horizon_days": 2.96, "reproduced_sub_km": false, "vaelon_verdict": "BLOCK", "signed_head_prefix": "1c63a6f7" }, { "p_norad": 66056, "p_name": "OBJECT D [+]", "days_since_epoch": "3.636", "tca": "2026-07-27 17:49:26.527", "socrates_min_range_km": 0.053, "socrates_rel_speed_km_s": 0.75, "s_norad": 66711, "s_name": "FLOCK 4H-8 [+]", "max_probability": "1.559E-03", "status": "screened", "vaelon_dca_km": 2.951, "vaelon_tca_utc": "2026-07-27 17:49:26.687", "vaelon_closing_rate_km_s": -0.00089, "vaelon_rel_speed_km_s": 0.7499, "delta_vs_socrates_km": 2.898, "p_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 10:27", "s_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 04:08", "horizon_days": 3.31, "reproduced_sub_km": false, "vaelon_verdict": "BLOCK", "signed_head_prefix": "ac0243e7" }, { "p_norad": 43812, "p_name": "GLOBAL-2 [+]", "days_since_epoch": "2.616", "tca": "2026-07-26 16:45:37.370", "socrates_min_range_km": 0.054, "socrates_rel_speed_km_s": 14.702, "s_norad": 1392, "s_name": "SL-8 DEB [-]", "max_probability": "6.040E-04", "status": "screened", "vaelon_dca_km": 0.2693, "vaelon_tca_utc": "2026-07-26 16:45:37.430", "vaelon_closing_rate_km_s": -3.45504, "vaelon_rel_speed_km_s": 14.7024, "delta_vs_socrates_km": 0.2153, "p_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 13:06", "s_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 01:37", "horizon_days": 2.15, "reproduced_sub_km": true, "vaelon_verdict": "BLOCK", "signed_head_prefix": "642c79f9" }, { "p_norad": 45419, "p_name": "STARLINK-1308 [P]", "days_since_epoch": "1.335", "tca": "2026-07-25 15:03:10.252", "socrates_min_range_km": 0.054, "socrates_rel_speed_km_s": 12.239, "s_norad": 59717, "s_name": "STARLINK-11084 [+]", "max_probability": "9.273E-02", "status": "screened", "vaelon_dca_km": 9.3595, "vaelon_tca_utc": "2026-07-25 15:03:11.152", "vaelon_closing_rate_km_s": -0.04213, "vaelon_rel_speed_km_s": 12.2388, "delta_vs_socrates_km": 9.3055, "p_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 08:32", "s_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 12:16", "horizon_days": 1.12, "reproduced_sub_km": false, "vaelon_verdict": "BLOCK", "signed_head_prefix": "6e75b6c0" }, { "p_norad": 62079, "p_name": "SUPERVIEW NEO-2 03 [+]", "days_since_epoch": "7.128", "tca": "2026-07-29 14:29:42.031", "socrates_min_range_km": 0.054, "socrates_rel_speed_km_s": 0.001, "s_norad": 62080, "s_name": "SUPERVIEW NEO-2 04 [+]", "max_probability": "1.508E-03", "status": "screened", "vaelon_dca_km": 0.1519, "vaelon_tca_utc": "2026-07-29 14:28:40.031", "vaelon_closing_rate_km_s": 2e-05, "vaelon_rel_speed_km_s": 0.0008, "delta_vs_socrates_km": 0.0979, "p_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 10:49", "s_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 12:24", "horizon_days": 5.09, "reproduced_sub_km": true, "vaelon_verdict": "BLOCK", "signed_head_prefix": "77650ba9" }, { "p_norad": 62079, "p_name": "SUPERVIEW NEO-2 03 [+]", "days_since_epoch": "7.063", "tca": "2026-07-29 12:54:52.568", "socrates_min_range_km": 0.055, "socrates_rel_speed_km_s": 0.001, "s_norad": 62080, "s_name": "SUPERVIEW NEO-2 04 [+]", "max_probability": "1.508E-03", "status": "screened", "vaelon_dca_km": 0.1611, "vaelon_tca_utc": "2026-07-29 12:53:50.568", "vaelon_closing_rate_km_s": 3e-05, "vaelon_rel_speed_km_s": 0.0008, "delta_vs_socrates_km": 0.1061, "p_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 10:49", "s_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 12:24", "horizon_days": 5.02, "reproduced_sub_km": true, "vaelon_verdict": "BLOCK", "signed_head_prefix": "9cde0a90" }, { "p_norad": 58625, "p_name": "STARLINK-30774 [+]", "days_since_epoch": "0.966", "tca": "2026-07-24 19:14:35.250", "socrates_min_range_km": 0.056, "socrates_rel_speed_km_s": 10.965, "s_norad": 62642, "s_name": "FLOCK 4G-29 [+]", "max_probability": "3.005E-02", "status": "screened", "vaelon_dca_km": 1.522, "vaelon_tca_utc": "2026-07-24 19:14:35.150", "vaelon_closing_rate_km_s": -0.69236, "vaelon_rel_speed_km_s": 10.9647, "delta_vs_socrates_km": 1.466, "p_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 11:45", "s_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 05:18", "horizon_days": 0.31, "reproduced_sub_km": false, "vaelon_verdict": "BLOCK", "signed_head_prefix": "f45a72df" }, { "p_norad": 62079, "p_name": "SUPERVIEW NEO-2 03 [+]", "days_since_epoch": "7.194", "tca": "2026-07-29 16:04:31.361", "socrates_min_range_km": 0.056, "socrates_rel_speed_km_s": 0.001, "s_norad": 62080, "s_name": "SUPERVIEW NEO-2 04 [+]", "max_probability": "1.508E-03", "status": "screened", "vaelon_dca_km": 0.1431, "vaelon_tca_utc": "2026-07-29 16:03:29.361", "vaelon_closing_rate_km_s": 0.0, "vaelon_rel_speed_km_s": 0.0008, "delta_vs_socrates_km": 0.0871, "p_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 10:49", "s_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 12:24", "horizon_days": 5.15, "reproduced_sub_km": true, "vaelon_verdict": "BLOCK", "signed_head_prefix": "c914d37c" }, { "p_norad": 62079, "p_name": "SUPERVIEW NEO-2 03 [+]", "days_since_epoch": "6.997", "tca": "2026-07-29 11:20:02.968", "socrates_min_range_km": 0.059, "socrates_rel_speed_km_s": 0.001, "s_norad": 62080, "s_name": "SUPERVIEW NEO-2 04 [+]", "max_probability": "1.508E-03", "status": "screened", "vaelon_dca_km": 0.1707, "vaelon_tca_utc": "2026-07-29 11:19:00.968", "vaelon_closing_rate_km_s": 4e-05, "vaelon_rel_speed_km_s": 0.0008, "delta_vs_socrates_km": 0.1117, "p_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 10:49", "s_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 12:24", "horizon_days": 4.95, "reproduced_sub_km": true, "vaelon_verdict": "BLOCK", "signed_head_prefix": "b478a248" }, { "p_norad": 42840, "p_name": "LEMUR-2-FURIAUS [+]", "days_since_epoch": "0.749", "tca": "2026-07-24 18:17:23.394", "socrates_min_range_km": 0.06, "socrates_rel_speed_km_s": 14.735, "s_norad": 46060, "s_name": "STARLINK-1572 [+]", "max_probability": "1.536E-02", "status": "screened", "vaelon_dca_km": 0.8771, "vaelon_tca_utc": "2026-07-24 18:17:23.194", "vaelon_closing_rate_km_s": 1.72152, "vaelon_rel_speed_km_s": 14.7349, "delta_vs_socrates_km": 0.8171, "p_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 11:16", "s_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 07:15", "horizon_days": 0.29, "reproduced_sub_km": true, "vaelon_verdict": "BLOCK", "signed_head_prefix": "d8e40be4" }, { "p_norad": 62079, "p_name": "SUPERVIEW NEO-2 03 [+]", "days_since_epoch": "7.260", "tca": "2026-07-29 17:39:20.551", "socrates_min_range_km": 0.061, "socrates_rel_speed_km_s": 0.001, "s_norad": 62080, "s_name": "SUPERVIEW NEO-2 04 [+]", "max_probability": "1.508E-03", "status": "screened", "vaelon_dca_km": 0.1351, "vaelon_tca_utc": "2026-07-29 17:38:22.071", "vaelon_closing_rate_km_s": 0.0, "vaelon_rel_speed_km_s": 0.0008, "delta_vs_socrates_km": 0.0741, "p_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 10:49", "s_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 12:24", "horizon_days": 5.22, "reproduced_sub_km": true, "vaelon_verdict": "BLOCK", "signed_head_prefix": "0edf4657" }, { "p_norad": 52610, "p_name": "STARLINK-3998 [+]", "days_since_epoch": "6.801", "tca": "2026-07-31 03:12:55.986", "socrates_min_range_km": 0.062, "socrates_rel_speed_km_s": 12.534, "s_norad": 63239, "s_name": "TEVEL2-8 [+]", "max_probability": "2.141E-02", "status": "screened", "vaelon_dca_km": 3962.8469, "vaelon_tca_utc": "2026-07-31 03:11:53.986", "vaelon_closing_rate_km_s": 9.0791, "vaelon_rel_speed_km_s": 12.4506, "delta_vs_socrates_km": 3962.7849, "p_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 14:00", "s_epoch_utc": "2026-07-24 11:57", "horizon_days": 6.55, "reproduced_sub_km": false, "vaelon_verdict": "ALLOW", "signed_head_prefix": "bcf6d133" } ], "agreement": { "note": "Comparison to SOCRATES is a soundness check, not a validation claim: we screen from current public elements (not guaranteed to be the exact set SOCRATES used), and conjunction geometry days ahead is highly sensitive to element vintage and crossing speed. On the closest-geometry events our independently-computed miss distance matches the published value to sub-km, confirming the propagation + screening chain is correct; the large-\u0394 events are multi-day predictions of fast crossing passes \u2014 exactly where screening against a stale catalogue snapshot is least reliable, and continuous re-screening against fresh state has value.", "horizon_le_2d": { "n": 6, "median_abs_delta_km": 0.8171, "max_abs_delta_km": 9.3055, "within_1km": "4/6" }, "horizon_gt_2d": { "n": 19, "median_abs_delta_km": 3.2225, "max_abs_delta_km": 3962.7849, "within_1km": "7/19" }, "reproduced_sub_km_total": "11/25" } }