Independent re-screening of public conjunction data, signed
Vaelon independently re-propagated 25public conjunction events, this week's closest public predictions (SOCRATES, ranked by minimum range; 21 unique object pairs, one close-orbit pair recurs across several passes), from scratch, gated each with the real flight engine, and folded every verdict into one tamper-evident HMAC-SHA256 chain. No permission, no partner, no flight required, just public data and the same code that runs onboard. Because this set is selected closest-first, it demonstrates false-alarm reduction only, see the honesty note below and the unbiased live catalogue screen further down.
Download the Safety Case Summary (PDF)Live catalogue screen: Vaelon finds the conjunctions itself
2026-08-04 13:45 UTCNo third-party conjunction list. Vaelon fetched 120 objects from the live public catalogue (CelesTrak GROUP=last-30-days (live)), propagated each with validated SGP4, screened all 7,140 pairs itself, gated every flagged approach, and signed each verdict into one chain. 1108approaches fell inside the 5 km keep-out and were flagged, predominantly recent launch-mate clusters still in formation (real proximity, correctly caught, not uncontrolled near-collisions).
What this set can and cannot show
These 25events are selected as this week's closest public predictions (SOCRATES, ranked by minimum range), so every one is an approach SOCRATES already flagged as near. That means this set can only demonstrate one direction: false-alarm reduction, where our fresh, from-scratch propagation downgrades a flagged conjunction (the ALLOWs). By construction it cannot show the more important opposite direction, catching a real approach a stale source called safe, because a missed detection can never appear in a closest-first sample. That unbiased direction is the live catalogue screen above: Vaelon screens all 7,140 pairs itself, with no third-party list, and finds the conjunctions on its own.
On the reproduction metric, |Δ| < 1 km between our independently-computed miss distance and SOCRATES's published minimum range, 11/25 of 25 events agree. That is a soundness check on the propagation + screening path against an independent authority, not a proof of correctness. Where the horizon is long or a payload has maneuvered, our propagation diverges from the stale snapshot, as expected (right).
How does it compare to SOCRATES?
Stratified by propagation horizon: ≤2 days (n=6) median |Δ| 0.8171 km, within 1 km on 4/6, but even here 2 of 6 diverge (one by ~9 km at a 1.1-day horizon), so agreement is not uniform; >2 days (n=19) median 3.2225 km, with a single outlier at 3963 km, a stale-element / maneuvered-payload case whose old TLE badly mispredicts the current pass, not a propagation error. This is the honest, expected behaviour of multi-day SGP4 conjunction prediction: reliable near-term, degrading with horizon and crossing speed. A soundness check, not a validation claim.
| # | Primary | Secondary | SOCRATES (km) | Vaelon DCA (km) | Δ (km) | horizon (d) | Vaelon | sig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | STARLINK-33894 [+] (63697) | OBJECT F [-] (47937) | 0.012 | 56.415 | +56.403 | 6.32 | ALLOW | ef1ddb6d |
| 2 | KUIPER-00174 [+] (65787) | EGYPTSAT 1 [-] (31117) | 0.015 | 0.818 | +0.803 | 0.68 | BLOCK | d0a47cb9 |
| 3 | IRIDIUM 160 [+] (43569) | COSMOS 1680 [?] (16011) | 0.020 | 2.712 | +2.692 | 6.39 | BLOCK | 9ca559fc |
| 4 | STARLINK-3983 [+] (52618) | OBJECT B [+] (60013) | 0.025 | 130.705 | +130.680 | 2.65 | ALLOW | 21e64bd2 |
| 5 | YAOGAN-36 01A [+] (53943) | STARLINK-37871 [+] (69549) | 0.029 | 1686.645 | +1686.616 | 3.54 | ALLOW | d9a602e1 |
| 6 | YAOGAN-39 02C [+] (57890) | TOMORROW-S11 [+] (67399) | 0.029 | 8.912 | +8.883 | 7.14 | ALLOW | 6aa5d4f4 |
| 7 | GOSAT 2 (IBUKI 1) [+] (43672) | SL-14 R/B [-] (14552) | 0.031 | 4.724 | +4.693 | 6.22 | BLOCK | 6f8b0d5a |
| 8 | SHIYAN-5 (SY-5) [+] (39455) | FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] (31566) | 0.033 | 0.190 | +0.157 | 0.93 | BLOCK | 3815368f |
| 9 | OBJECT K [+] (61903) | OBJECT C [+] (62727) | 0.042 | 12.829 | +12.787 | 6.24 | ALLOW | 1af7ecf3 |
| 10 | STARLINK-34157 [+] (64084) | COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] (35443) | 0.043 | 0.079 | +0.035 | 7.28 | BLOCK | a8655088 |
| 11 | YAOGAN-28 [+] (41026) | STARLINK-5124 [+] (54011) | 0.047 | 0.560 | +0.513 | 0.53 | BLOCK | fad504fe |
| 12 | SWARM A [+] (39452) | YAOGAN-35 03C [+] (53320) | 0.050 | 67.337 | +67.287 | 5.03 | ALLOW | f512ba29 |
| 13 | HULIANWANG JISHU SHIYAN 4A [+] (58691) | DELTA 1 DEB [-] (7130) | 0.050 | 3.272 | +3.223 | 4.50 | BLOCK | 99d1f142 |
| 14 | STARLINK-30933 [+] (58410) | BANDWAGON-4 OBJECT M [+] (66304) | 0.052 | 6.668 | +6.616 | 2.96 | ALLOW | 437d50d9 |
| 15 | OBJECT D [+] (66056) | FLOCK 4H-8 [+] (66711) | 0.053 | 2.951 | +2.898 | 3.31 | BLOCK | edc3000a |
| 16 | GLOBAL-2 [+] (43812) | SL-8 DEB [-] (1392) | 0.054 | 0.269 | +0.215 | 2.15 | BLOCK | 89f42605 |
| 17 | STARLINK-1308 [P] (45419) | STARLINK-11084 [+] (59717) | 0.054 | 9.360 | +9.306 | 1.12 | ALLOW | 3c11c15f |
| 18 | SUPERVIEW NEO-2 03 [+] (62079) | SUPERVIEW NEO-2 04 [+] (62080) | 0.054 | 0.152 | +0.098 | 5.09 | BLOCK | ac6a89d8 |
| 19 | SUPERVIEW NEO-2 03 [+] (62079) | SUPERVIEW NEO-2 04 [+] (62080) | 0.055 | 0.161 | +0.106 | 5.02 | BLOCK | 41ba599a |
| 20 | STARLINK-30774 [+] (58625) | FLOCK 4G-29 [+] (62642) | 0.056 | 1.522 | +1.466 | 0.31 | BLOCK | 2809b810 |
| 21 | SUPERVIEW NEO-2 03 [+] (62079) | SUPERVIEW NEO-2 04 [+] (62080) | 0.056 | 0.143 | +0.087 | 5.15 | BLOCK | edd2bcc1 |
| 22 | SUPERVIEW NEO-2 03 [+] (62079) | SUPERVIEW NEO-2 04 [+] (62080) | 0.059 | 0.171 | +0.112 | 4.95 | BLOCK | 4fc333a1 |
| 23 | LEMUR-2-FURIAUS [+] (42840) | STARLINK-1572 [+] (46060) | 0.060 | 0.877 | +0.817 | 0.29 | BLOCK | 7533c9b2 |
| 24 | SUPERVIEW NEO-2 03 [+] (62079) | SUPERVIEW NEO-2 04 [+] (62080) | 0.061 | 0.135 | +0.074 | 5.22 | BLOCK | 56c9e20b |
| 25 | STARLINK-3998 [+] (52610) | TEVEL2-8 [+] (63239) | 0.062 | 3962.847 | +3962.785 | 6.55 | ALLOW | b03d95e1 |
Object-name suffixes are CelesTrak operational-status codes: [+] operational · [−] non-operational · [P] partially operational · [?] status unknown.
Source: CelesTrak SOCRATES Plus, Top 25 by Minimum Range · this is a fixed snapshot dated 2026 Jul 24 18:19:29 UTC, not a live feed (the SOCRATES candidate list is a manual pull). It is here as an independent-propagation soundness check against SOCRATES; the current, self-refreshing evidence is the live catalogue screen above, which depends on no third-party list.
Reproduce:both objects' orbital elements are fetched from CelesTrak and re-propagated with the reference SGP4 library; the closest approach is recomputed from scratch and gated by vaelon-core (the real flight engine), which signs each decision. The signed head above verifies the whole log. Decision rule: for a ground re-screen the gate is a keep-out check on the computed closest approach, BLOCK when it is inside 5 km. So a fast crossing whose closest approach is well outside the keep-out is correctly ALLOWed, even where the source catalogue flagged it. Download the signed pack (JSON) →
horizon = days from the later element-set epoch to closest approach. Agreement with SOCRATES decays with horizon and crossing speed, as expected for multi-day SGP4 conjunction prediction.